Posts Tagged ‘Uncategorized’
USA Today’s Sloppy Sludge Statistics
The Sept. 30, 2002 edition of USA Today has a long article about the controversies surrounding treated human waste, which is often repackaged and used as fertilizer. Critics of recycling sewage in this way maintain that it is impossible to ensure that all human pathogens are removed, where the Environmental Protection Agency responds that if the sludge is used according to guidelines then it is safe.
One of the major problems seems to be that under EPA guidelines if a farmer uses treated waste on his field, the treated waste is supposed to be left alone for at least one month — plenty of time for the sun to wipe out human pathogens. Actually keeping humans out of contact with the sludge, however, appears to be difficult and the USA Today article includes several anecdotes of people who were sickened, and in some cases died, from diseases that they might have contracted after coming into contact with treated human waste.
But USA Today writer Kathleen Fackelmann also totally flubs statistics from a British Medical Journal study on just how big the risk of contracting staph infection from waste is. According to Fackelmann (emphasis added),
David Lewis, an EPA scientist who says he red flags he raised about sludge led to a job dispute with the EPA, which then assigned him to a post at the University of Georgia in Athens, says he has evidence that exposure to sludge might pose a health hazard. His study published in the July issue of British journal BMC Health suggests that people living near sludge sites run a 25% risk of getting infected with Staphylococcus aureus . . .
Lewis and his colleagues studied 48 people who lived near sludge sites and had symptoms of sludge exposure. The researchers found that one out of four people had developed an S. Auerus infection that required treatment.
But finding that 25 percent of the people near sludge sites who showed “symptoms of sludge exposure” had developed S. aureus is not the same thing as saying that “people living near sludge sites run a 25% risk of getting infected” with S. aureus.
This is a bit like saying that a study of 100 people with measles symptoms in the United States found that 90 percent actually had measles, so the general risk of getting measles in the United States is 90 percent.
Source:
Moving slowly on sludge. Kathleen Fackelmann, USA Today, September 30, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
Study: Media Distorts in the Way it Reports Medical Research
A study published in the British Medical Journal in July found that British newspapers generally only report on the weakest and most sensational medical research, underreporting strong research that reports good news.
The study looked at 1,193 articles published in the Lancet and the British Medical Journal, and then compared how press releases about those studies were described in the Times and Sun newspapers.
The study found that newspapers preferred reporting on stories based on observational data rather than randomized trials, even though the former is much weaker evidence than the latter. In addition, although press releases about studies were roughly equal as far as good and bad news, the newspapers were more likely to report on the studies with bad news.
Source:
Strongest medical evidence seldom considered newsworthy. EurekAlert, July 11, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
No Evidence for Beneficial Effects of Garlic, Soy Supplements
Although garlic and soy supplements are widely available and touted as providing a number of health benefits, a two-day conference sponsored by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute concluded that there is no evidence that taking such supplements provides any benefit.
One of the major problems with over-the-counter dietary supplements such as garlic and soy pills and powders it that there is little quality control involved to determine how much active ingredient is in such supplements. Similar supplements may actually vary widely in how much active ingredient they contain, and some supplements may contain soy and garlic in a form that the body can’t even use.
“Very, very high on the list [of issues to be resolved] is the need for standardization of botanicals to ensure that we know what we are getting,” State University of New York in Albany researcher Eric Block told the conference.
Pharmaceutical companies manufacturing processes are strictly regulated by the Food and Drug Administration, but supplements for things like soy and garlic are not subject to those regulations.
Source:
Experts: Benefits unproven for popular supplements. Maggie Fox, Reuters, August 23, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
Are More Black Men In Jail Than College?
In August the Justice Policy Institute generated a lot of headlines and broadcast news college with a study claiming that there were more black men in prison than in college. But a close look at the numbers finds the study doesn’t add up.
In a press release summarizing their findings, the Justice Policy Institute said,
Cellblocks or Classrooms? also reports that in 2000, there were an estimated 791,600 African American men in prison and jail, and 603,000 in higher education.
But as Iain Murray noted in a column for TechCentralStation.Com, the Justice Policy Institute’s estimate of the number of African American men in college is too low. According to the Census Bureau, there were an estimated 804,000 African-American men in college in 2000. So, in 2000, there were (barely) more black men in college than in jail or prison.
Of course the comparison is of little use since people of all ages are sent to jail, whereas college students tend to be 18-24 year olds. Murray tracked down the respective figures for those age groups and found that for African American men 18-24, there were 480,000 in college and 180,000 in prison or jail. An young African American male is, in fact, two-and-a-half times as likely to be in college as prison or jail.
The figures are even more impressive when African American women are included. Murray notes that there were 747,000 African American women 18-24 in college as opposed to only 9,000 in prison or jail in 2000. So, in total, there were 1,216,000 young African Americans in college compared to 189,000 in jail or prison.
As Murray sums it up,
What is perhaps most annoying about the way the Justice Policy Institute chose to present its figures is that it helps perpetuate the stereotype that a young African American male is likely to be a troublemaker or jailbird. In fact, as a careful look at the figures shows, he is much more likely to be carrying books than a gun. Tremendous advances have been made in crime reduction in the African community . . . which should not be hidden by presentation of statistics that, however well intentioned, show that community in a negative light.
Source:
Behind Books, Not Bars. Iain Murray, TechCentralStation.Com, September 2, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
Medical Journals, Journalists Confuse People with Discussions of Risk
Ross Gittins wrote an excellent op-ed for Australia’s The Age about one of the biggest problems with the way journalists report on risk research — they inevitably tell readers and viewers what the increase in risk was, but rarely the absolute risk.
Gittins points to the recent study of oestrogen and progestin combination therapy that found a slight increase in the risk of certain forms of cancer among women taking the combination therapy.
As Gittins notes, it was widely reported that the therapy increased the risk of breast cancer by 26 percent, the risk of stroke by 41 percent, and the risk of heart attack by 29 percent. But, aside from the fact that these are extremely low increases in risk — far below the 100 percent in risk that such studies should have in order to avoid the possibility of confounding circumstances — knowing the precentage increases in risk is not very helpful without knowing what the risk was in the first place.
For example, another way of saying that combination hormone replacement theory increases the risk of breast cancer by 26 percent is that a woman on it has increased her risk of getting breast cancer from 1 in 333 to 1 in 263. Similarly, the change in risk of heart attack goes from 1 in 333 to 1 in 270.
Even worse is that in this case the authors of the study themselves highlighted the increased percentage of risk, and as Gittins writes, “You have to delve deep into their article to find the information needed to beat their true meaning out of them . . .So the primary blame oges to the authors of the article, not the journos who reported on it.”
Both medical journals and journalists need to do a much better job of making clear just what increases in risk mean and discuss the limits of epidemiological research as well. Otherwise these studies end up creating a lot of hysteria and concern based largely on a lack of understanding by laypeople about what the study ultimately means.
Source:
When journalists juggle figures, the public is at risk. Ross Gittins, The Age, August 7, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
Is Organic Agriculture Viable? Probably Not
Ronald Bailey took a look at the inconvenient parts of a Swiss study that the media largely covered as offering proof that organic farming was viable and efficient. A close look at the study, however, finds that it is neither.
First, it is important to note that organic crops are not efficient at all when it comes to land use. The crop yields the Swiss researchers found were significantly lower for organic crops than for intensive modern farming. Bailey notes that the study found that organic “cereal crop yields in Europe typically are 60 to 70% of those under conventional management.”
This simply confirms what has been obvious for a long time — any wholesale switch away from intensive farming to organic farming would mean converting massive amounts of land to agricultural purposes.
The Swiss researchers maintain, however, that organic farming is more energy efficient. Their study claims that organic farms use only half the energy that conventional farms do. The difference is mainly due to the use of fertilizers and pesticides in intensive agriculture. By the time that the higher crop yields of intensive farming is factored in, though, this 50 percent energy savings is lowered to 19 percent.
But does organic farming really save energy? Not according to Bailey,
Secondly, the researchers declare that they found nutrients “in the organic systems to be 34 to 51% lower than in conventional systems, whereas mean crop yield was only 20% lower over a period of 21 years.” But — to ask the organic advocates’ own question — is organic agriculture sustainable over the long run? Again, the fine print says no. As their research confirms, organic farming is mining the soil of its vital minerals, particularly phosphorus and potassium. Eventually, as these minerals are used up, organic crop production will fall below its already low level. Conventional farming, on the other hand, restores mineral balance through fertilization.
So much for sustainable agriculture.
Source:
Organic Alchemy: Organic farming could kill billions of people. Ronald Bailey, Reason, June 5, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
Who Needs Nukes When You Have Ancient Hindu Texts?
India has nuclear weapons, but apparently that is not enough. So, according to the BBC, it is now turning to an ancient Hindu text as a source for future military technology.
The text was written by Indian military strategist Kautilya in the fourth century BCE in which the author claimed to have access to fantastic military methods.
For example, the text claims to contain a recipe that allows a soldier to be fed a single meal and remain healthy without eating again for an entire month. Another part of the text claims that specially made shoes made of camel skin will enable soldiers to walk for hundreds of miles without ever feeling tired.
Indian soldiers might like to fight during the evening hours, and so the ancient text includes details on making a powder from fireflies and the eyes of a wild boar that will allow soldiers to see in the dark. For good measure, the text purportedly even explains how to manufacture invisible and indestructible planes.
Not surprisingly, India Defense Minister George Fernandes is apparently behind the project to study the ancient Hindu text. Fernandes was at the center of a bribery scandal involving India’s arms trade and was removed from his position for 8 months. Apparently one of his strategies to overcome that and hold on this time is to appeal to Hindu nationalism by going along with this absurd exercise.
Source:
India defence looks to ancient text. Shaikh Azizur Rahman, The BBC, May 14, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
Consumer Products Safety Commission Asleep at the Wheel Again
Every couple of years the Consumer Products Safety Commission realizes it does not have enough to do and so makes some noise about a horrible safety hazard — children sleeping in their parents’ bed.
Early this month the CPSC put out a press release nothing that from 1991 through 2001, at least 180 children under the age of two died while sleeping in an adult bed. Back in 1999 it issued a similar press release noting that from 1990 through 1997, 515 children under 2 died while sleeping in an adult bed.
Obviously sharing a bed with an adult must be dangerous.
Sure, but not as dangerous as sleeping alone in a crib. As Katie Allison Granju pointed out at her weblog, estimates put the number of deaths of infants in cribs, bassinets and cradles at more than 2,000 annually, compared to the 60 or so infants the CPSC maintains die every year from sleeping with an adult.
The bottom line is that from these numbers we can tell almost nothing about the relative risk of either sleeping method. In order to have the numbers make any sense at all as far as which sleeping method is safer, we would need to have reliable information on how frequently infants sleep in an adult bed vs. how frequently they sleep in a crib, bassinet or cradle.
Given that the CPSC lacks that information, it is completely unconscionable for it to recommend to parents that they never place a sleeping baby in an adult bed. They have absolutely no scientific basis for making that recommendation and the commission should be ashamed of itself for trying to create a safety hysteria over a practice that is as old as humanity itself.
Source:
Commission recommends against children sleeping in adult beds. Laura Lane, WebMD, September 29, 1999.
comments. Katie Granju, Loco Parentis, May 6, 2002.
CPSC, JPMA Launch Campaign About the Hidden Hazards of Placing Babies in Adult Beds. Press Release, U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, May 3, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
How Reliable Are Epidemiological Studies?
The New York Times’ Gina Kolata recently looked at how a randomized trials of hormone replacement therapy is undermining confidence in epidemiology.
The impetus for this debate was started when 28 prominent scientists and doctors concluded that randomized clinical trials indicate that there is no benefit to HRT. The problem for epidemiology is that numerous epidemiological studies — including several large, well done studies — have concluded that HRT offers real benefits to women.
The obvious conclusion is that epidemiological evidence might be far more likely to be erroneous than generally thought. This is especially true with the ongoing obsession over studying extremely small effects (for example, the plethora of studies that report 30 or 40 percent increases in risk). As Kolata writes,
There is a reason the truth is so hard to find, he [Dr. Richard Peto] said. Increasingly, researchers are looking for very small effects like a tiny edge in a battle against heart disease. If an effect is huge like the increased risk that a person who smokes will develop lung cancer, an observational study will correctly find it. If a treatment is truly sensational, Dr. Peto said, its benefits will be so clear that any study, randomized or observational, will find them.
The problems occur in questions like the one on estrogen, he said, “when the effects aren’t very big.” If there is no effect or just a tiny one, chance comes into play, making one study turn out slightly positive and another slightly negative, and any flaw in a study or its analysis can throw the results into the wrong column.
The best outcome of the debate over the disparate HRT findings might be a more skeptical interpretation and treatment of epidemiological studies that report such small effects.
Source:
In public health, definitive data can be elusive. Gina Kolata, The New York Times, April 23, 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized
The DOE’s Dowsing
Between January 2000 and July 2000, the Department of Energy spent more than $400,000 to investigate a procedure called Passive Magnetic Resonance Anomaly Mapping (PMRAM). Stripped of the jargon, PMRAM is nothing more than dowsing.
The DOE paid that moeny for a Ukrainian man to walk around fields with a device that he said allowed him to detect magnetic fields and thereby map the underground locations of groundwater, faults, fractures, buried objects, and chemicals (including pollutants).
The DOE was not supposed to spend this money on technologies without first having the technologies reviewed by the Office of Science and Technology. When the OST finally got a hold of the PMRAM results it noted that the technology “appeared to be implausible, did not allow for a scientifically-based evaluation, provided no useful information during three field evaluations, and appeared inadequate as a site characterization.” The OST audit also noted that had the DOE followed established peer review procedures, it could have avoided wasting $400,000 worth of taxpayer’s money on such patently bogus techniques.
The DOE has a history of getting scammed by these sorts of frauds. It spent a considerable amount of money testing the Quadro Tracker dowsing device — the FBI later forced Quadro Tracker out of business for attempting to sell fraudulent franchises.
In 1998, the DOE also fell hook, line and sinker for the DKL LifeGuard which supposedly could spot people through 500 feet of concrete and steel. That device actually showed up as a plot point in Tom Clancy’s “Rainbow Six,” but in fact it was little more than a dowsing rod that was no more likely to locate people behind concrete than was flipping a coin.
Source:
At the DOE, Dowsing for Dollars. Leon Jaroff, Time.Com, April 17, 2002.
Doe Voodoo: Inspector General Uncovers More High-Tech Dowsing. Bob Park, American Physical Society, January 25, 2002.
Audit Report: Passive Magnetic Resonance Anomaly Mapping at Environmental Management Sites. U.S. Department of Energy: Office of Inspector General, DOE/IG-0539, January 2002.
Tags: Uncategorized