By Brian Carnell

Wednesday, January 21, 2004

In January, Kenya announced that its HIV rate had fell almost in half overnight. But this was not due to any new program adopted by Kenya. Rather the government released a more accurate estimate that only 6.7 percent of people in Kenya suffer from AIDS compared to the older estimate of 15 percent.

The 6.7 percent infection rate is based on the most extensive look at AIDS in Kenya yet, and even then the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey looked at a mere 8,561 households in a country of 32 million people.

On the heels of other studies in Mali, Zambia and elsewhere that found similar overestimates, one has to wonder about the quality of data on HIV prevalence throughout the developing world.

Meanwhile UNAIDS advisor Catherine Hankins took the bizarre view that there was, in fact, no overestimation of HIV rates,

We cannot say that we have overestimated HIV rates in Africa. All figures for HIV prevalence in Africa are estimates.

Yes, but I don't remember UNAIDS ever warning publicity that estimates may be off by a factor of two or more. Such large discrepancies could potentially cause donor nations to question the reliability of UNAIDS assessments of the epidemic.

Source:

Study cuts Kenyan HIV estimates. The BBC, January 9, 2004.

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