Are Highway Fatalities on the Rise Thanks to SUVs? No
Writing for TechCentralStation, Iain Murray did an excellent job in April of pointing out some flaws in the way that the latest report from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on traffic accidents and fatalities was covered.
As Murray notes, a lot of the coverage focused on the increase in the number of people killed while offering up SUVs as the problem. But digging deeper into the study makes one wonder what the fuss was all about.
In 2002, 42,850 people were killed in 38,356 fatal automobile accidents. This compared to 2001, when 42,116 people were killed in 37,795 fatal accidents. So the increase in traffic fatalities was only 734, or a 0.018 percent increase. Much of that was accounted for by the growth in the U.S. population which the U.S. Census Bureau estimates increased by 0.009 percent from 2001 to 2002.
The rest of the difference is likely accounted for by slight changes in driving patterns. As Murray points out, the NHTSA’s statistics show no change in the number of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled which remained at 1.5 for both 2001 and 2002 (in contrast, in 1991 the figure was two fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled).
Injuries, Murray points out, decreased despite the slight population increase. There were only 103 injuries per 100 million vehicle miles in 2002 compared to 109 in 2001. According to Murray, injury rates have been decreasing since 1995, which is likely attributable to newer cars with more advanced safety features replacing older cars with less sophisticated safety options.
Now here’s where the statistical trickery really comes in. The NHTSA noted that a whopping 59 percent of the increase in fatalities were in accidents involving SUV’s. So of those 734 additional people killed, 434 were killed in accidents involving SUVs. But again, as Murray points out, not only as the nation’s population been increasing, but the number of SUVs has been increasing as well. A decade ago there were hardly any SUVs on the road, whereas today they are everywhere and seem to be multiplying like rabbits. As Murray writes,
There may be a safety issue with SUVs, but it is also possible that reckless drivers who would get into an accident anyway are now more likely than before to drive an SUV. It would therefore be useful to know the number of fatalities per SUV registered, but the NHTSA does not provide this information. It is also noticeable that the number of injuries sustained in SUV, pickup and van accidents declined from 861,000 to 840,000.
I wonder why the NHTSA did not deem it relevant to provide that information?
Sources:
Statistical Traffic Wreck. Iain Murray, TechCentralStation.Com, April 28, 2003.
Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population as of July 1: Middle, Lowest, Highest, and Zero International Migration Series, 1999 to 2100. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000.
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