Archive for 2001
Number of Human Victims of Mad Cow Disease May Be Small
At one time, estimates were that upwards of 100,000 people in Great Britain might die from Mad Cow Disease — the first time I ever heard of the disease was in a speech given by Howard Lyman in which he claimed the disease would prove worse than AIDS. These estimates have been steadily revised downward, and a recent study by French scientists suggests that the disease may peak at a couple hundred deaths.
The current research is based on a computer model of the disease that incorporates new assumptions about the disease.
One of the striking things about the variant CJD that is believed to originate as a result of Mad Cow Disease is that young people seem especially susceptible to it, as compared to the non-variant CJD — which is unconnected with Mad Cow Disease — which generally afflicts people over the age of 50.
The average age at death of victims of vCJD is only 28, while 93 percent of people who die from CJD are over the age of 50. This leads some researchers to conclude that for some reason, young people are especially susceptible to vCJD, and that as time goes by this will result in a fall-off of the number of cases and deaths.
The study, published in Science, says, “Our prediction of the epidemic of vCJD lies in the ‘optimistic’ end of the ranges of previously published figures, and this low value is in favor of a large species barrier between cattle and humans.”
Add to that, the fact that susceptibility to the disease seems to affect only a specific genetic subpopulation of individuals, and it may turn out that only a tiny number of people ever exposed to Mad Cow Disease ever have a chance to contract vCJD.
The study suggests that the total number of vCJD deaths is likely to be somewhere between 205 and 403, although these estimates are highly dependent on current information about vCJD and could change with new information.
Still, it is encouraging that the worst scenarios seem extremely unlikely at this point, and vCJD is unlikely to become a massive epidemic in Great Britain.
Sources:
CJD deaths ‘may have peaked’. The BBC, November 23, 2001.
Worst of Mad Cow May Be Over. Paul Recer, Associated Press, November 22, 2001.
Wednesday, December 19, 2001.
Tags: Uncategorized
Federal Officials Tried to Fake Lynx Data
An ongoing point of controversy in the western part of the United States is the protection of lynx habitat. Environmentalists claim that lynx habitat is endangered and want new restrictions on private and public lands, while developers and others argue that lynx habitat is not endangered and new regulations are not needed. In the midst of this controversy comes word that federal employees of the U.S. Forest Service and The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service apparently tried to plant evidence indicating lynx were present in a federal forest that is currently part of a three-year study of the species.
The research in question was a three-year study authorized by the Clinton administration to study the habitat of the lynx population in and around the Gifford Pinchot National Forest and the Wenatchee National Forest in Washington state. The study used rubbing posts in the forests which were then examined for the presence of lynx hair.
But at least seven government officials were disciplined for planting at least three samples of lynx hair on the posts. When the DNA of the lynx hair was analyzed, two of the samples matched a lynx living in an animal preserve, and the third sample match that of a lynx that had been held by the government until its owner reclaimed it. The government officials had taken hair from those animals, and affixed it to the rubbing posts to make it appear as if lynx had been in the area.
Had the ruse succeeded, this could have led to restrictions on human activity within the two parks.
When caught, the three Forest Service employees, two U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service officials, and two Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife employees claimed they were simply trying to “test” the lab’s DNA expertise. Those who participated in the scheme have been banned from any further participation in the survey, although the government will not release their names citing privacy issues.
Source:
Rare lynx hairs found in forests exposed as hoax. Audrey Hudson, The Washington Times, December 17, 2001.
Tags: Uncategorized
Chickenpox Parties in the United States
The Associated Press recently reported that some families in the United States are organizing disease parties to expose their children to chicken pox rather than use the now commonly used chicken pox vaccine. But chicken pox can be deadly, and the reasons the families give for avoiding vaccination don’t jibe with the evidence.
Dr. Karin Galil, an infectious-disease specialist with the Centers for Disease Control, told the Associated Press that prior to the introduction of the chickenpox vaccine, about 100 people died annually from chickenpox and 5,000 to 9,000 people were hospitalized with the disease. Chickenpox can cause brain swelling, pneumonia and skin infections in children and adults.
The parents who are organizing chickenpox parties are apparently afraid that the vaccine does not provide life-long protection from the disease, and contracting chickenpox as an adult is far more dangerous than as a child. But long-term studies of the vaccine from Japan show that the vaccine offers effective protection for at least 25 years, with research obviously ongoing to track the effectiveness of the vaccine over longer periods.
Besides, contracting the disease as a child is also no guarantee that the disease will not be contracted as an adult. In fact, Great Britain, which does not vaccinate children for chickenpox, has recently had an increase in chickenpox deaths, mostly among adults. From 1978-85, there were 120 deaths from the disease in the UK, but from 1986-1997 there were 269 deaths from the disease. Whether or not this is a statistical anomaly or a real trend is up in the air (in fact, the British government disputes these findings which it says are based on “historic” data).
But regardless, the point is that even in environments where children are exposed to the disease, adult cases of chickenpox are still an inevitable. Parents choosing to intentionally expose their children to chickenpox rather than vaccinate are subjecting them to a real risk of injury or death for extremely tenuous (and likely non-existent) benefits 25 or 30 years in the future.
Source:
Leery of vaccine, some parents hold ‘chickenpox parties’ to infect kids. Associated Press, October 18, 2001.
Adult chickenpox deaths rise. The BBC, November 9, 2001.
Tags: Uncategorized
Do Drug Patents Present a Major Obstacle to AIDS Treatment in Africa?
For the past several years AIDS activists have charged that patents on HIV antivirals has significantly harmed the ability of African nations to respond to the AIDS crisis. A new study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, however, suggests that this is simply not the case.
Researcher Amir Attaran, an adjunct lecturer in public policy and a researcher at the Center for International Development, examined the status of patents on anti-AIDS drugs and found that, in fact, most such drugs were not patented in African nations. Looking at the patent status of 15 drugs in 53 African countries, they found only 172 actually existing patents for such drugs out of the 795 patents that might exist. In fact, in several African countries there were no patents on any existing HIV drugs — and, therefore, no legal barriers to using generic versions of patented AIDS drugs — but almost no treatment of AIDS patients with those antivirals.
Not surprisingly, the real obstacle to treating HIV in Africa is the continent’s endemic poverty. According to Attaran, even with generics AIDS treatment is still going to cost $350 per person in countries that typically budget less than $10 per person in their health budgets.
Attaran could have also added to the obstacles state resistance to the reality of the AIDS epidemic. Just this month, for example, South Africa’s government stepped into a major controversy over its continuing suppression of an internal government report on the AIDS epidemic in that country. The report was suppressed largely because it called for the widespread use of anti-HIV drugs — an approach which continues to be opposed by South African president Thabo Mbeki (Mbeki has, in the past, turned down large donations of HIV drugs in accordance with this policy).
Sources:
One Expert’s Opinion: Amir Attaran Says New Study Shows that Patents Are Not the Obstacle to HIV Treatment in Africa. Kennedy School of Government (Harvard), Press Release, October 22, 2001.
Do patents for antiretroviral drugs constrain access to AIDS treatment in Africa? Amir Attaran, Lee Gillespie-White, Journal of the American Medical Association, 2001;286:1886-1892.
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How Many People Will Die from Mad Cow Disease?
Aalthough initial predictions suggested that tens of thousands of people would die from variant Cretuzfeldt-Jakob disease (Mad Cow Disease), so far the number of new cases and deaths have been extremely small. Now, a new study suggests that in the worst case scenario only a few thousand people will contract the disease — not the 100,000 or so predicted by other researchers.
A lot depends on how existing numbers are interpreted. So far, very few people have been diagnosed with vCJD. From 1995 to 1999, for example, there were only 61 cases of the disease diagnosed in Great Britain, with 55 deaths. Altogether, only about 100 people have died from the disease.
Still, researchers at the Imperial College predict that as many as 100,000 people could die from the disease. This is predicated on the view that large numbers of people were exposed to Mad Cow-infected beef, but simply have yet to show any symptoms of the disease. Researchers published this month in Science offers an alternative view — that few people have contracted the disease because few people actually consumed Mad Cow-infected beef.
In their study, the researchers conclude that even if 12 million people in Great Britain were exposed to the disease, the incubation period in most cases would be far longer than current human life spans. They estimate that the total number of vCJD cases will be somewhere between a few hundred and several thousand.
“Even in the worst case scenario, there are never likely to be more than 100 cases of vCJD pre year,” researcher Huillard d’Aignaux told Reuters.
Sources:
UK study predicts fewer human ‘Mad Cow’ cases. John Griffiths, Reuters, October 25, 2001.
vCJD ‘epidemic’ might be waning. Pallab Ghosh, The BBC, October 26, 2001.
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If John Edward is Psychic, Why Didn’t He See This Coming?
I’m not sure why, but John Edward, the psychic featured on the SciFi channel’s “Crossing Over with John Edward” is someone who I can’t watch without experiencing intense feelings of disgust. So I was not surprised at all when his publicity people announced last week that Edward would attempt to contact the dead victims of the World Trade Center attack. In fact, I’m definitely not psychic, but back in September I told my wife that Edward would inevitably try to pull just such a stunt.
Less than 24 hours later, however, the show’s distributors called off the planned show citing what it called “a reaction that none of us expected.”
Huh? I thought this guy was supposed to be a psychic. You should have seen it coming, John.
Sources:
John Edward scraps terrorist victims seance plan. Broadcasting & Cable, October 25, 2001.
Tags: John Edward
Was Rotavirus Vaccine Prematurely Recalled?
In 1998 Wyeth Laboratories introduced Rotashield, a vaccine against the common rotavirus, whose main symptoms are severe, sometimes fatal diarrhea. An estimated 600,000 to 800,000 infants around the world die annually from rotavirus-related complications.
A rotavirus vaccine would be an important advanced, but Wyeth’s vaccine was quickly withdrawn after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control conducted studies suggesting that the vaccine increased the risk of intussusception, a rare type of bowel obstruction.
When Wyeth voluntarily withdrew the vaccine, the CDC estimated that the risk of an infant receiving the vaccination contracting intussusception was one in 2,5000. But in February 2001 the CDC announced that the results of a more thorough study reduced the risk to one in 10,000, and a further refinement of the data suggests that the risk is even smaller than that.
In fact, researchers looking at data from 10 states concluded that the rate of intussusception actually declined during the period when the vaccine was on the market.
Even with a one in 10,000 risk, however, this vaccine would be a godsend in many parts of the developing world, but the damage has already been done. Wyeth, almost certainly concerned about its potential liability over the vaccine, say that it has no intention to resume production of Rotashield.
Source:
Rotavirus vaccine may have been prematurely withdrawn. Lauren Morello, New Scientist, October 12, 2001.
Tags: Uncategorized
Are UFOs Afraid of Foot and Mouth Disease?
There was a brief item on the BBC web site at the end of August which deserves mention before I forget about it. As some of you may be aware, for the last year Great Britain has been reeling from a widespread foot and mouth disease epidemic. Apparently alien visitors to the United Kingdom are also afraid of the epidemic.
Foot and mouth disease, of course, creates a flu-like condition in cattle and other animals. It does not kill them and is not a threat to human beings, but it causes afflicted animals to lose a lot of weight and have other problems, thereby costing millions and millions of dollars. The disease is easily spread by even casual contact, so in order to contain the disease Great Britain instituted severe restrictions on travel in rural areas.
Apparently aliens decided to observe the ban on travel as well — the number crop circles declined drastically after the travel restrictions. In one area which had been a common place for such circles, only one crop circle had been seen during the months when the travel restrictions were in place.
Of course this odd coincidence won’t dissuade the true believers, who tell the BBC with a straight face that although as many as 80 percent of the crop circles are produced by hoaxers, the rest are “genuine.”
Source:
Disease brings poor crop of circles. The BBC, August 17, 2001.
Tags: Uncategorized
Landfill Study Was Pure Garbage
When the British Medical Journal published as study claiming to find a linnk between birth defects and living near landfills, the BBC quoted anti-landfill activist Natalie Medlicott as saying, “It shows taht we were right all along.” In reality the actual conclusion to draw from teh study is that there it demonstrated there is no evidence of any link between landfills and birth defects.
Follow the bouncing ball here. Epidemiological studies are rather crude tools for a variety of reasons. To really say there is a likely causal link between two variables, such as landfills and birth defects, ideally there should be a very large relationship on the order of 200 percent. Otherwise, the odds are very high that the result is just a product of statistical noise. This is why, for example, studies finding a 20 to 30 percent increase in the risk of cancer among women who have had abortions are routinely dismissed — that level of risk is simply too low to measure with standard epidemiological tools.
So how big is the alleged risk from living near landfills? According to the BMJ study, it is a whopping one percent. That’s right, the BMJ actually published a study claiming that there was a one percent higher risk of congenital abnormalities for people loiving within 2 kilometers of a landfill site, a 7 percent higher risk for those living near sites containing hazardous waste, and a 5 percent risk of low birth weight for babies born to parents living near landfills.
These results are so low that this is largely the same thing as saying the study found no evidence of any increased risk from living near landfills. That the BBC and other news media chose to spin these studies as finding a serious link between birth defects and landfills was absurd.
The BBC did quote experts to that effect in its story, with Professor Charles Rodeck telling teh BBC, “I am greatly reassured by it [the study]. If a woman said to me ‘do I have to move away’ I would say no.” But it also included plenty of sensationlist quotes such as that from Friends of the Earth’s Mike Childs saying, “This study adds to our fears that if youa re born near a landfill sit eyou are more likely to be born with a birth defect.”
And most importantly, nowhere in its study does the BBC explain anything about statistics and epidemiological studies that might allow readers to better understand what a 1 percent increased risk in an epidemiolgoical study really means.
Source:
Birth defect link to landfill sites. The BBC, August 16, 2001.
Living in the shadow of a landfill. The BBC, August 16, 2001.
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NBC’s Dishonest Coverage of Glacier National Park
In early September, NBC ran an intriguingGlobal Warming story. According to the story, the temperature in Glacier National Park had risen over the last century to the point where the famous glaciers were melting. Thanks to humanity’s impact on climate, this incredible natural wonder would soon disappear. While that made a compelling story, it turns out to be partly fictitious.
Writing for the Cato Institute, Patrick Michaels notes that interested parties can download detailed temperature records for western Montana, where Glacier National Park is located, on the Internet. The Western Montana Climatological Division maintains climate records for the state that begin in 1895.
The interesting thing about those records is that temperatures in Glacial Park today are almost identical to what they were 107 years ago. So where is the 3 and 1/2 degree increase that NBC claimed was melting the glaciers? This change comes by looking at the data beginning in 1950, when for a variety of reasons the temperature was far lower than it was in 1895.
As Michaels puts it, the anomaly is not that the glaciers are melting — they were almost certainly melting as soon as that part of the West emerged from a cold period that ended sometime in the middle of the 19th century. The anomaly is that this melting was temporarily slowed down around 1950. Michaels asks,
Why didn’t NBC check the regional temperature records for western Montana? Instead of recycling an old story, they could have produced a much better one — real news — by showing that Glacier’s’ glaciers have been melting like this for well over a century and are doing so without any net regional summer warming in the last 100 years.
Ah, but recycling nonsense is so much easier.
Source:
NBC twists facts, again, about Glacier Park. Patrick J. Michaels, Cato Institute, September 15, 2001.
Tags: Global Warming